Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
