Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
